Success is more dependent on luck than hard work according...
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The most talented individuals are rarely the most successful. In general, mediocre-but-lucky people are much more successful than those who are more talented but unlucky. People with the greatest success tend to be those who are just a bit above average in talent but have lots of luck in life.Consider some recent findings: Around half of the difference in income among people around the world is explained by where they live and the way income is distributed in that place, The likelihood of finding high-impact work in a scientific career is random, with productivity alone having only a limited effect. You have a better chance of becoming a CEO if you have a name or a month of birth, June and July have fewer CEOs born than other months, A person with a last name earlier in the alphabet is more likely to get promotions at a top governmet department, People's intellectual capacity and achievements are valued more positively when their middle initials are displayed, People with easy to pronounce names are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names, Women with masculine sounding names have a higher chance of succeeding in legal professions
AzHaRZaYaThank you!! Finally someone says it. The country you are born in was due to the hardwork of countless generations adding year-by-year. If you are...Thank you!! Finally someone says it. The country you are born in was due to the hardwork of countless generations adding year-by-year. If you are "successful" its because the 'infrastructure' was put in place to allow you to have a wide array of career choices.Show more3 years ago
SeuliKonar1:09 Most people also don't sit and compare in depth how their experiences and contributions to different things compare to others contributions to...1:09 Most people also don't sit and compare in depth how their experiences and contributions to different things compare to others contributions to a larger community.Show more3 years ago
satyamkumarYou are Genius if no one tell you yet. Thanks for making this discussion3 years ago
MohitChauhanSweet CGP Grey t-shirt! Are you able to provide any references or links to all these experiments discussed in the discussion?3 years ago
ChandanChinmayaThe bias can also do with over layers of responsibility and influence, the overestimation can be not realizing the symbiotic parts when you have...The bias can also do with over layers of responsibility and influence, the overestimation can be not realizing the symbiotic parts when you have your part, they there parts then the shared parts each take creditShow more3 years ago
ShailendraSinghThere’s no such thing as luck, at face value what “luck” really is, is when preparedness meets opportunity.3 years ago
AnuragChoudharyYou haven't taken into account the enormous advantage sociopathy, specifically a lack of empathy, gives individuals, and how such individuals are...You haven't taken into account the enormous advantage sociopathy, specifically a lack of empathy, gives individuals, and how such individuals are less likely to give back, because they simply don't care - which is a HUGE factor in how they got there in the first place.Show more3 years ago
subhajyotiGoLuiAs said by one of my favorite gaming youtubers "Play based on your RNG."
He said it because people tend to restart the game(it's EU4 btw) if they don't...As said by one of my favorite gaming youtubers "Play based on your RNG."
He said it because people tend to restart the game(it's EU4 btw) if they don't have favorable RNG, but to think about it it fits well on how to view success.
It is more relevant whem playing as a small nation, say Byzantium. Even if you are the best player in the game, Luck still plays a huge role on how to "beat the game" per se.
For example, it's not impossible to beat the Ottomans alone as Byzantium, but it would be exponetially easier if: - Ottomans "mothball" their forts prior to your attack. - Most of the Ottoman's forces are on the Anatolian side instead on the Balkan side. - Attack Çandar or Karaman first. - You have an Alliance with Austria/Hungary/Poland/Lithuania/Muscovy etc. - They are in a war against Mamluks, among other things.Show more3 years ago
amolSuccess is when opportunity meets preparation. How often you encounter opportunity is luck.3 years ago
PushpenderSinghI came here to learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from...I came here to learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made $460,000 in 4 months from $160k. Somehow this discussion has helped shed light on some things, but I'm confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas.Show more3 years ago
GulshanKumarTo anyone who thinks the hard work is the most important to achieve the success: how hard did you work , how many girls you sleep with before you...To anyone who thinks the hard work is the most important to achieve the success: how hard did you work , how many girls you sleep with before you met your lovely wife? Do you have that lovely wife because you had luck or were going from door to door to search for her?Show more3 years ago
AyanPalWonderful. You're such a great teacher. Thank you for sharing.3 years ago
MuntasirMahmudI'm convinced half of luck is charisma. It helps to make those connections that "lucky" people get naturally through family and otherwise.3 years ago
SandipanDasModerate success is like a lottery where hard work and skill are the entry price to play.3 years ago
suppamanBinnyMost modelling is based on the mean and people are unfamiliar with the Volatility discount. Most algorithms are mean biased! This volatility relates...Most modelling is based on the mean and people are unfamiliar with the Volatility discount. Most algorithms are mean biased! This volatility relates to the steepness of the gradient between success and failure. Investing in start ups where a pool of 25,000 companies gives a mean annual return of 15% over 7 years sounds like a good idea until you factor in the volatility factor. If you invest $1000 each in less than 30 start ups and add up your proceeds, you will almost certainly have lost money. If you invest in more than 50 it is unlikely that you will lose money as the law of averages kicks in...Show more3 years ago
TanishSinghHonestly I always thought of success in terms of speedrunning, in speedrunning you can be as good as you want but you still need some luck to...Honestly I always thought of success in terms of speedrunning, in speedrunning you can be as good as you want but you still need some luck to achieve world records, however if you aren’t good or don’t keep trying then the luck doesn’t matter or help. So really I believe success can be attributed to luck, hard work, and determination most importantlyShow more3 years ago
SaurabhkumarWe have a saying in Poland for this: "success has many fathers, failure is an orphan"3 years ago
SatyamPagiFar better to work hard, and be prepared for something that might (luckily) happen, than be unprepared for something that does happen.3 years ago
SachinChauhanSeeing luck in what we achieved, seeing our part in things we failed and beeing aware, that much of our future is made by us helps us to be...Seeing luck in what we achieved, seeing our part in things we failed and beeing aware, that much of our future is made by us helps us to be grateful, which comes with happiness, helps us to learn and improve and helps us to stay creative and to not fall into the trap of consumption.
But for me it's very important to know my limits and to not push over. This body, the physical as the emotional as the one that handles thoughts, all these have limits, at least as I perceive them. If I push over, they stumble or even fall and this takes time to recover, which wasn't necessary if I accounted the health of them as part of my responsibility and priorities in the first place.Show more3 years ago
TanvipandeyWe don't feel grateful for our fortunate circumstances ...just like the presenter forgot to mention Malcolm Gladwell and Outliers...3 years ago
SumanKumarAlthough it is not central to the point you are making, I would love to see what percentage of the luckiest astronauts made it to the final 11. It...Although it is not central to the point you are making, I would love to see what percentage of the luckiest astronauts made it to the final 11. It serve to drive the point that you cannot survive on luck aloneShow more3 years ago
GovindMoyalI find very interesting how he sees all that from a perspective of someone non-red-pilled....3 years ago
aakashranjanIn my country South Korea, most people are depressed that they think they are born in the worst country in the world. Literally, they compare South...In my country South Korea, most people are depressed that they think they are born in the worst country in the world. Literally, they compare South Korea to hell. High level of competition, many conflicts between interest groups, hostile foreign countries(NK)... etc But I know that I'm a fairly lucky person to born in this country that far better than others. After watching the discussion, I realized that I'm not wrong and motivated to work really hard to be more successful. Thank you!Show more3 years ago
SubhamKumarI had a tuition teacher told me that "you can put all your hard work and it'll still be just 70% for success and the remaining 30% is always luck". I...I had a tuition teacher told me that "you can put all your hard work and it'll still be just 70% for success and the remaining 30% is always luck". I had a perfectionist mindset and when I heard of this I thought "if I can still fail even if I give it my all then I'll just stop". And begin the road of depression for several years. Now I've changed my mindset back to a positive one and now my moto is "In time, I'll get to a better state. I just need to work a little harder"Show more3 years ago
AbhiPratikWonderful discussion. I feel blessed and lucky to have run into this. Really explains why some people don't realize the misfortune of others and...Wonderful discussion. I feel blessed and lucky to have run into this. Really explains why some people don't realize the misfortune of others and think "they should just work hard, like I did...."Show more3 years ago
RhmnTby the way Derek i respect you, man!3 years ago
JaikishanSulaniyaI see what you did there, keeping the script entirely the same except for the last paragraph where you say that luck played a big role in order to...I see what you did there, keeping the script entirely the same except for the last paragraph where you say that luck played a big role in order to make us like you more~Show more3 years ago
DevashishbrotherIn my experience, luck and hard work are not mutually exclusive. People say that being at the right place and the right time is the key, they are...In my experience, luck and hard work are not mutually exclusive. People say that being at the right place and the right time is the key, they are partially true in my experience. To be able to fully realize being at the right place at the right time, you also have to have the skills and work ethic to back that "chance" up that you were given. Granted not all cases are the same, this is just been my experience in my professional life.Show more3 years ago
ShivPatelHow did you got lucky You must have given a thought and looked back upon your life. What factor did luck played in your life apart from the things...How did you got lucky You must have given a thought and looked back upon your life. What factor did luck played in your life apart from the things you showed us?Show more3 years ago
VikashKukretiMany people say that it isn't luck that makes you successful, but skill and hard work. However, doesn't your skill and hard work technically come...Many people say that it isn't luck that makes you successful, but skill and hard work. However, doesn't your skill and hard work technically come from luck? For example, if you are very skilled at many things, it could be because you learn really fast and that could come from good genes, which come from your ancestors. However, you don't choose your ancestors, nor do you choose which genes you inherit from them. Therefore, your good genes come from luck. I believe that the term is call genetic lottery. Perhaps the reason why your IQ is higher is because nobody dropped you on your head when you were a baby or because you didn't grow up in a house with lead paint.
Success also comes from hard work, but maybe the reason why someone is willing to work harder is because they had parents and teachers that trained them to work hard when they were younger until it became a habit. Perhaps a parent or teacher did a good job in getting a child to enjoy learning. So in other words, a person was lucky to have good parents and/or teachers while other people didn't.
Perhaps the reason why some people are willing to work harder is because they get good results for their hard work since they are fast learners. People with lower IQ get worse results so they wouldn't be as motivated to work hard if their isn't a good return on investment.Show more3 years ago
SwapnilBorse"it's a useful delusion to believe you are in full control of your destiny" (5:32) nice to know...3 years ago
SuryaKobe"Yup, that's how I met your mother" - still a better ending than How I Met your Mother3 years ago
SidhantYadavA good insight into why religious individuals are more charitable. There is a fundamental understanding that much of an outcome is due to an...A good insight into why religious individuals are more charitable. There is a fundamental understanding that much of an outcome is due to an external force.Show more3 years ago
NawnitkumarI've learnt that life is super unfair even if you work for years. Esp in countries like Romania, where misoginism is an art, where ppl are super mean.3 years ago
ArnabMondalThis is the question I have after watching this discussion about any data on the role of chance or luck in our success :
Clinically, does research...This is the question I have after watching this discussion about any data on the role of chance or luck in our success :
Clinically, does research show that being aware of the role chance plays in our success, and acknowledging that, and demonstrating an understanding in words and interaction with others that it could be chance that didn't allow some other able people to succeed as much while we did, actually contribute to our own success further, or can it in fact be detrimental? How does it help, as per research and measurable data, other than 'good feeling' of it?Show more3 years ago
souravsaketYou mean luck from birth. Hard working could be the minor Factor if we talking by Professional Success, so many factors we have to consider Time...You mean luck from birth. Hard working could be the minor Factor if we talking by Professional Success, so many factors we have to consider Time Born, Location, Family, Ethnicity, Support to Grow and flourish And our Reaction circumstances. ( no mention Genes, social Relationships) Luck= born with the " right tools" for that Cultural Period in History + Time and space *( + openminded open hearted ) = LUCK I love your work by the way, its clear as water you love what you too.Show more3 years ago
PawanKumarCan we appreciate the power of "bad luck" to take away opportunities from you when they are so close? For instance, I can count there instances in my...Can we appreciate the power of "bad luck" to take away opportunities from you when they are so close? For instance, I can count there instances in my life where my lie would have went a different directions and went in another direction completely because of sheer bad luck ( being hospitalized for months, my best friend dying and my mom dying at the worst times). Through those times, I kind of tried to let these things affect me less or whatever, but the truth is these events have real effects that can't be ignored. It's not just the grief (psychological impact) you have to deal with it's how your life changes because of that death or event(the connections you lose, the support, the things you have to abandon, income/time lost, new responsibilities and re-shaping of relationships etc) I truly understood this fact when I read popular science books on neuroscience. I also realize that despite all of it, I'm a bit lucky despite how unhappy I am quite a bit of the time.Show more3 years ago
ShabbirShahBeing born in the first quarter really affects the career of an ice hockey player really struck me.
I would say that this is same for education...Being born in the first quarter really affects the career of an ice hockey player really struck me.
I would say that this is same for education wherein older students are more mentally and emotionally mature than the younger ones and this difference compounds each year.Show more3 years ago
ArpitGupta[English is not my first language, so please excuse me if i make any mistake]
omg finally someone else said it! I've been thinking about this topic...[English is not my first language, so please excuse me if i make any mistake]
omg finally someone else said it! I've been thinking about this topic for years, and see how much succeed I've done in my life even though im still a 22 year old collage students. when people ask about me and my story (i got accepted for a full international scholarship. I left my home to become an international students studying abroad in a really good uni at the age of 16-17), they often say things along the lines of "wow! you are really smart! you must have done impossible work to be accepted in a full scholarship". no, im not incredibly smart. there are millions of students who are better than me. my grades are good, but not mind blowing. when you see my reports, and everything about me, im just an average person. i was just born in a place and time where my parents and my country started developing fast. my parents used the money to educate me, and found tutors for me, and that's why im here.
you don't have to be the best at something to succeed. you just have to be good enough, and sometimes luck will push you the rest of the way. i sit often wondering about the people who are better than me. how saddening to think that someone out there is much more deserving of what i have because they know much more than me, and that they might have a better impact on the world than me. i was not the best. i was just good enough, and was at the right place, at the perfect time.
i used to tell this to myself, so i don't forget how lucky i am :
" a famous talented musician can dominate the world of music. they might be voted to be the best. i think that they deserve it. it's hard for success to come from 100% luck (though sometimes it happens), but i always think about the other 7+ billion people on earth; what are the chances that you are actually the best at something in a world with BILLIONS. chances are that there is someone there who is better than you, but did not get lucky when it comes to exposure. maybe the famous musicians uploaded their first song on a website at the perfect time for other to see it, and the person with more talent was born in an unlucky place country."
chances are that there is someone out there who is better than me, but lives in an area where he can't work towards his goals, or maybe he was just unlucky by not getting the same full scholarship i got.Show more3 years ago
shubhusinghAt 4:10. We're going to make a model of success. I only look at the most high skill people at the top of my model, but then arbitrarily assign...At 4:10. We're going to make a model of success. I only look at the most high skill people at the top of my model, but then arbitrarily assign everyone an additional 5% of their score on a random luck variable. Oh wow look! Most of the top successful people are lucky!
That's effectively what was done here. It's not saying much when you design a simulation to get the results you want, no matter how many times you run it. I bet you could tweak your model, arbitrarily again, to get a result that shows success is 100% luck.Show more3 years ago
singhavtarThis channel always blows my mind. I am grateful for the luck that led me to discover this channel and but it is your hard work and skill that has...This channel always blows my mind. I am grateful for the luck that led me to discover this channel and but it is your hard work and skill that has kept me coming back for more. Incredible content as always. Thank you.Show more3 years ago
VedantKumarThis is spot on. People in positions of power need to be aware of their luck /fortune3 years ago
RhmnTamazing discussion now lets change the word luck to GRACE (unmerited, undeserved favor) thanks for your discussions i like them.3 years ago
ShrutiRautNot only do I have very little good luck (percentage wise, I'm in the low single digits), I also have an unconscious bias against me. My parents, my...Not only do I have very little good luck (percentage wise, I'm in the low single digits), I also have an unconscious bias against me. My parents, my brother, my friends, my teammates, my peers, my teachers, my employers (from "friends" on I'm generalizing, not every single one was biased against me, just the majority of them were). They treat me differently, they interact with me differently and they lack respect when I'm involved. I've had to deal with this my entire life (I became aware of it in my mid twenties but always had a feeling something wasn't quite right from my youth). Just to survive, I have to do more than my coworker (I'm not a snitch, if the boss doesn't see the other employee half assing his way through the work day then that's on him). I'm not perfect, I make mistakes and sometimes make really bad decisions when it's 4th and long and there is only 30 seconds left on the clock but at least I made a decision, I stepped up to the plate when no one else would (including those who have been there longer than I have). I take full responsibility for my actions, but only if they're attached to repercussions, I never, NEVER get the good kind when I make the correct decisions...never. There even have been a few times when I was chastised for making the right decision. So, yeah, not only is luck not on my side...neither are any of you and I wish death would get off his lazy ass and hasten me to my next existance because I'm tired of this up hill struggle that has provided me with just enough to keep from starving or dying from exposure. Give my 3% of good luck to someone else, maybe a sick kid or someone who really deserves it.Show more3 years ago
manpreethIt's interesting that in the discussion an assumption was made that by donating to charity a person is helping foster society. What if charities do...It's interesting that in the discussion an assumption was made that by donating to charity a person is helping foster society. What if charities do not help society as stated? This could be correct, but I suspect that it has not been proven. All the best everyone.Show more3 years ago
Deepakkkmy mom stopped schooling at 8 years old, while my dad stopped when he was 15,both due to poverty. Statistically the cycle of poverty would continue,...my mom stopped schooling at 8 years old, while my dad stopped when he was 15,both due to poverty. Statistically the cycle of poverty would continue, but a University opened up close to our home, and my father worked there as a gardener, there he borrowed books for me and opened up my interest in education and its importance. Now I'm working there as an academic faculty member, and people around would always ask how a barely educated gardener raise up an academician. Looking back, if we were just a few kilometres away from the uni, our lives could drastically altered, among other factors that are too long to explain. Today I try my best to help others who weren't so lucky.Show more3 years ago
SunilSabarCelebrity motivational discussions be like:
I was sitting on the porch one day, depressed, had nothing to do, I was weak. I was all alone. My dad...Celebrity motivational discussions be like:
I was sitting on the porch one day, depressed, had nothing to do, I was weak. I was all alone. My dad walked over to me and sat beside me. My dad told me something that would forever change my life and set me u For success, He told me “son, my multi-billion dollar company is yours now”Show more3 years ago
TphuntsokTsawaLuck is such an interesting concept. The notion of a supernatural or metaphysical factor is unavoidable. People say 'good luck' all the time but...Luck is such an interesting concept. The notion of a supernatural or metaphysical factor is unavoidable. People say 'good luck' all the time but what that actually means is really not known. Is there some unseen guiding force in the universe that goes against the uncaring chaos and entropy everywhere to makes situations align in favor for only some? You want something to happen, something beyond your control, you know there must be some small chance it will happen and if it does it was luck and if it doesn't it was statistics. What does luck mean to you?Show more3 years ago
Around half of the difference in income among people around the world is explained by where they live and the way income is distributed in that place,
The likelihood of finding high-impact work in a scientific career is random, with productivity alone having only a limited effect.
You have a better chance of becoming a CEO if you have a name or a month of birth,
June and July have fewer CEOs born than other months,
A person with a last name earlier in the alphabet is more likely to get promotions at a top governmet department,
People's intellectual capacity and achievements are valued more positively when their middle initials are displayed,
People with easy to pronounce names are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names,
Women with masculine sounding names have a higher chance of succeeding in legal professions