In its Consumer Credit Demand Index for the March quarter of 2022, Equifax found that mortgage demand fell for the first time in two-and-a-half years in Q1, down 4.6%.
As shown above, the fall nationally was driven by our two largest states – New South Wales (-7.6%) and Victoria (-8.5%) – whose decline in mortgage demand was well above average.
Kevin James, Equifax's General Manager of Advisory and Solutions, commented on the results:
It's clear that factors like rising interest rates and uncertainty about what impact that will have on the housing market are having a tangible impact on consumer behavior, both for prospective new buyers and existing mortgage holders. As interest rates continue to rise in the coming months, we expect demand to slow further".
Obviously, this data predates the Reserve Bank's latest interest rate hike, which should have dampened demand even more.
AMP Capital's Shane Oliver thinks home buyers won't buy as mortgage rates rise:
There's still a long way to go because the interest rates are just rising at a time when affordability is already bad"
"The price falls will probably get worse as the pool of buyers gets smaller as it gets harder to get into the market."
Oliver predicts a 10% to 15% drop in house prices from mid-year to 2024.
Westpac's "time to buy a home" index is also at its lowest level since April 2008, down more than 40% from its November 2020 peak.
Aussie interest rates are going up over the next year, and house prices are going down, so home buyer demand is going to crash.
It depends how aggressively the Reserve Bank raises rates.